Formerly used to safeguard against double-voting, inked fingers remain a democratic tradition in Philippine elections. Image source: Reuters, Willy Kurniawan

The 2025 Philippine midterm elections have delivered not clarity, but contention. The Senate race—once expected to cement the Marcos administration’s legislative dominance—has instead exposed a finely balanced political battlefield. Of the 12 contested seats, six will go to Marcos-aligned candidates, five to the Duterte bloc, and one to an independent or unaffiliated figure.

This outcome denies either camp a decisive mandate and sets the stage for complex power-brokering in a chamber pivotal to impeachment proceedings, foreign treaty ratifications, and national policy direction. Governance in the coming years will hinge not on authority, but on negotiation and brinkmanship.

A Country Split

The election outcome reflects a deepening fragmentation within the Philippine political landscape. No ideological center has prevailed. This year’s results have exposed enduring regional and socioeconomic divides, particularly between Luzon and Mindanao.

Voters in central Luzon and the Visayas largely favored administration figures, reaffirming support for President Marcos Jr.’s continuity agenda. Meanwhile, Mindanao voters—still reeling from ongoing neglect and conflict—gravitated toward Duterte-aligned candidates. An unexpected outcome was the dominance of local dynasties in peripheral provinces like Sulu, There, voters overwhelmingly supported the Lakas–CMD-affiliated Tan family, indicating that national alliances with either the Marcos or Duterte blocs were less influential than localized political loyalty.

Public frustration with dynastic dominance appears to be growing in some areas, as evidenced by the rise of issue-based voting. Yet the electorate remains caught between disillusionment and pragmatism. The 2025–2031 Senate is therefore poised to become a site of constant negotiation rather than a venue for clear-cut reform. Gridlock is likely, particularly on polarizing issues such as anti-terror legislation, ICC cooperation, and economic restructuring. In turn, the Marcos administration may lean more heavily on executive orders to push forward its agenda.

The survival of Philippine democracy depends not on who holds power alone, but on how power is exercised. And whether unity, rather than dynasty, defines the years to come.

Importantly, this political complexity was accompanied by a high voter turnout of approximately 80.27% nationwide—an unusually strong figure for a midterm election. Analysts have credited this level of engagement to growing political awareness among younger Filipinos. Voters aged 18 to 44, comprising Millennials and Gen Z, made up roughly 63% of the electorate, suggesting that a generational shift may be reshaping the country’s political dynamics. Still, turnout was uneven across regions: in Misamis Oriental, participation dropped dramatically to 51%, compared to 86.8% in 2022, while neighboring Cagayan de Oro City maintained a steady 72%. These contrasts illustrate the uneven strength and vulnerabilities of democratic engagement across the archipelago.

Threats to Democracy

This election cycle was marred not only by local violence but also by credible and growing evidence of foreign and digital interference. Clashes in parts of Maguindanao, Basilan, and Sulu led to at least eight confirmed deaths and dozens of injuries, reflecting the persistent volatility of southern Philippine politics.

More concerning was the confirmation by National Security Council (NSC) officials that Chinese state-backed efforts sought to influence the 2025 elections. NSC Assistant Director General Jonathan Malaya testified that narratives crafted in Beijing were being disseminated by local proxies to undermine pro-sovereignty candidates and discredit military exercises like Balikatan. These messages framed defense cooperation with the United States as a threat to regional peace, aligning with China’s broader strategic goals in the South China Sea.

The most serious allegation involved the Chinese Embassy in Manila allegedly contracting InfinitUs Marketing Solutions Inc., a PR firm based in Makati, to orchestrate a disinformation campaign. Senator Francis Tolentino presented financial records—including a check from the embassy—as evidence of the operation. The firm is now under investigation for possible espionage and treason.

Thousands of automated accounts were deployed in the weeks leading up to the election to spread false claims about voter eligibility, ballot fraud, and discredit specific candidates.

In addition to foreign interference, cybersecurity experts reported spikes in coordinated social media manipulation and suspected bot activity targeting Filipino voters online. Thousands of automated accounts were deployed in the weeks leading up to the election to spread false claims about voter eligibility, ballot fraud, and discredit specific candidates. It is believed that domestic influencers, social media personalities, and fringe political operators were likely instrumental in amplifying foreign-sourced narratives—whether through paid partnerships or ideological alignment.

While these threats did not appear to affect vote counts directly, they revealed the susceptibility of the Philippine information environment. Analysts suggest Beijing's broader goal is to weaken U.S.-Philippine defense cooperation by swaying public opinion and legislative support away from deeper security alignment with the West. It also underscored China’s determination to shape Philippine political outcomes in ways that safeguard its geopolitical and economic interests.

Duterte Bloc Rebounds

Despite being detained by the International Criminal Court, former President Rodrigo Duterte remains a potent political force. His daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, faces impeachment, yet their faction has mounted a significant comeback. The election of allies such as Tito Sotto, Harry Roque, and Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa reinforces their enduring grassroots support—especially in Mindanao and across various provincial strongholds.

In a notable show of political resilience, Duterte himself secured re-election as mayor of Davao City from ICC detention in the Hague, defeating his rivals with a substantial margin. The symbolic victory underscores the lingering appeal of Dutertismo in southern Mindanao and its potential to rally national resistance against the Marcos-led coalition.

With five likely Senate seats, the Duterte bloc may now tip the balance in key votes. Sara Duterte’s political future may hinge on this group’s internal cohesion. More broadly, the enduring popularity of the Duterte narrative—centered on nationalism, militarized governance, and federalism—signals that the movement’s influence is far from diminished.

Marcos Coalition Holds, But Must Share Power

Although expectations of a Marcos landslide did not materialize, the administration retained a solid Senate core. Bong Go, Pia Cayetano, Erwin Tulfo, and Bato dela Rosa all secured seats, providing a dependable foundation for the president’s legislative strategy.

With additional support from independents such as Ping Lacson and Lito Lapid, the Marcos camp may still assemble a functional majority. The administration is expected to prioritize infrastructure expansion, digital transformation, and market-friendly reforms.

Still, without a sweeping mandate, Marcos must proceed with care. Legislative momentum will depend on cross-bloc cooperation, and with a resurgent Duterte faction now entrenched in the Senate, even aligned policies may advance only incrementally.

BARMM and Sulu Divided

REFERENCES

Abarca, C. (2025, April 24). China interfering with PH’s May 2025 polls, says NSC’s Malaya. Inquirer.net. https://globalnation.inquirer.net/274143/china-interfering-with-phs-may-2025-polls

Commission on Elections. (2025). Official results and voter turnout statistics, May 2025 Philippine midterm elections. https://comelec.gov.ph

GMA News. (2025, May 10). Millennials, Gen Z make up 63% of Eleksyon 2025 voters. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/935726/millennials-gen-z-make-up-63-of-eleksyon-2025-voters/story/

GMA News. (2025, April 25). NSC: There are indications China interfering in Eleksyon 2025. https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/943790/nsc-there-are-indications-china-interfering-in-eleksyon-2025/story/#goog_rewarded

KnowSulu. (2025, March 27). Securing Sabah: Examining the legitimacy of rival claims to the contested region. https://www.knowsulu.ph/the-untold-sulu-story/securing-sabah-examining-the-legitimacy-of-rival-claims-to-the-contested-region

Reuters. (2025, May 13). Down, not out: Philippines election gifts Duterte a shot at political survival. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/down-not-out-philippines-election-gifts-duterte-shot-political-survival-2025-05-13/

Reuters. (2024, November 8). Philippine president signs new laws to assert South China Sea rights, sovereignty. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-president-signs-new-laws-assert-south-china-sea-rights-sovereignty-2024-11-08/